IPCC 2018

IPCC stands for  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – a United Nations group of science experts. This dire new report was issued Oct 8 2018. Here’s a link to the complete summary for policy makers  sr15IPCC  and a good report by Greenpeace

Simplified Review

This new report outlines the dangers of exceeding 1.5°C and emphasizes that it’s still possible to avoid a global catastrophe but only DRASTIC IMMEDIATE ACTION will work. The two graphics below illustrate how much worse things will get as the temperature rises from 1°C to 1.5°C and how catastrophic 2°C would be.

 

Below are (slightly edited) quotes from the report

C2. Limiting Global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial systems. These transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale, and imply deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of mitigation (emission reduction) options and a significant upscaling of investments in those options.

C2.4. The urban and infrastructure system transition consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C would imply, changes in land and urban planning practices, as well as deeper emissions reductions in transport and buildings. Technical measures and practices enabling deep emissions reductions include various energy efficiency options.

C3. All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C  project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 GtCO2 over the 21st century. ( there is no proven technology to achieve this)

C3.1. Existing and potential carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures include reforestation, land restoration and soil carbon sequestration, BECCS, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering and ocean alkalinization. These differ widely in terms of maturity, potentials, costs, risks, co-benefits and trade-offs .

C3.5. Some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures such as restoration of natural ecosystems and soil carbon sequestration could provide co-benefits such as improved biodiversity, soil quality, and local food security.

D1. Estimates of the global emissions outcome of current commitments under the Paris Agreement would not limit global warming to 1.5°C, even if supplemented by very challenging increases in the scale and ambition of emissions reductions after 2030

Limiting warming to 1.5°C can only be achieved if global CO2 emissions start to decline well before 2030.

The graphic below shows that limiting warming to 1.5°C requires drastic reductions starting by 2020