IPCC 2021/2

The evidence is clear: the time for action is now. We can halve emissions by 2030

https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/

GENEVA, Apr 4 – In 2010-2019 average annual global greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest levels in human history, but the rate of growth has slowed. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5°C is beyond reach. However, there is increasing evidence of climate action, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released today.

Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases of up to 85% in the costs of solar and wind energy, and batteries. An increasing range of policies and laws have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy.

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee.  “I am encouraged by climate action being taken in many countries. There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective.  If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.”

The next few years are critical

In the scenarios we assessed, limiting warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third. Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century.

“It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F),” said Skea. “Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”

Sample quote: SPM.D.5.3 The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.

PIK STATEMENT on IPCC report on climate impacts by co-author Katja Frieler and Director Johan Rockström

Today, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 2 published its 6th Assessment Report highlighting climate change impacts.

On this issue, Katja Frieler, a lead author of the IPCC report’s chapter on observed cross-sectoral impacts as well as contributing author of the report’s summary for policy makers, co-chair of the Transformation Pathways Research Department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research:

“We are already now leaving the world as we know it. Observed climate impacts are increasing across sectors, our report shows. Exceeding 1.1°C of global warming today doesn’t sound like much, yet the impacts of human-induced climate change on people and nature become more and more visible. For example, our greenhouse gas emissions are already largely responsible for the observed occurrence of mass bleaching threatening warm water corals. They are contributing to increased drought-induced tree-mortality. And they are driving far reaching shifts in the timing of many natural processes.

Compared to the previous assessment report, we have also gained a much better scientific understanding of societies’ sensitivities to weather conditions. In particular, how weather extremes affect our infrastructure, economies, and health. The numbers are clear. More people die from heat-related health issues due to global warming. Human induced sea level rise and the increase in heavy precipitation linked to tropical cyclones have expanded the damages they induce. A series of observed droughts with severe negative impacts on food security have been partly attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing. All this is happening already today at, again, just 1.1°C warming – which clearly shows that we must urgently limit further temperature increases. This is not just an environmental issue, it’s about our own safety.”Also on the IPCC report, Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor at the University of Potsdam, with regard to future impacts:

“Climate impacts are rising fast, hitting earlier than anticipated and affecting more people. Already 1.5°C will undermine livelihoods for billions of people due to heatwaves, floods, droughts, and sea level rise. And it is critical to realise that climate impacts are not only about temperature, but also the health of natural ecosystems, which determine the resilience to climate change. Food insecurity, water scarcity, and intolerable heat, when hitting vulnerable societies is a prescription for social instability, causing rising numbers of displaced people, migration and conflict.

Solving the climate crisis is here and now, and our utmost global priority for a safe and just future for humanity on Earth. Moreover, the report shows that there is no safe landing well-below 2°C global temperature increase unless we act on all planetary boundaries by securing the resilience of the biosphere – land, water, plants and animals. It’s our life-support system and buffering capacity to climate shocks. Fail and we risk triggering not only massive climate impacts, but also trigger cascades where collapse of ecosystems amplify warming, and causing even further social instability. The IPCC is clear, the moment of urgency is here.”